Much like the Roman Empire’s Year of the Four Emperors (69 AD), the quarterback market is a realm of constant change. It’s a realm where, one moment, a quarterback is ruling and sitting on the throne, only to be replaced by a new ruler a few months later.
On May 5, 2023, Lamar Jackson put the Baltimore Ravens’ feet to the fire, looking for a record-setting contract. It took time, but eventually, both parties agreed on a five-year, $260 million deal. Jackson’s yearly average would be around $52 million, which was the highest of any quarterback deal.
On July 25, the Los Angeles Chargers signed Justin Herbert to a new five-year deal that gave him an average of $52.5 million a year.
On September 7, Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals entered an agreed-upon deal that made their quarterback No. 1 in average salary at $55 million.
In the blink of an eye, just four months later, Jackson’s “record-setting deal” was now third among his peers.
Is Dak Prescott fit for the throne?
The Dallas Cowboys are facing a monumental decision. They must determine whether Dak Prescott deserves the crown. With the recent signings of Jared Goff and Trevor Lawrence to their lucrative deals, they put immense pressure on Dallas to decide if Prescott is a crucial part of their future.
His regular season numbers are among the best for any quarterback’s first eight seasons in the NFL. Since 2021, Prescott has helped his team to 32 wins. That’s fourth among all quarterbacks behind Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, and Patrick Mahomes. Unfortunately for Prescott, the narrative continues to be his inability to help the Cowboys move past the Divisional Round of the playoffs.
Does it all fall on his shoulders? Not at all. The Wild Card loss to the Green Bay Packers could have a larger circle around Dan Quinn, changing his defensive philosophy from what worked in the regular season. However, when it comes to a payday for Prescott, regular season wins might not be enough to keep him in Dallas - or can it?
The quarterback market is about paying for the ‘maybe.’
Imagine this scenario: You have $60 million, and you're considering investing it in a volatile stock over the next five years. The stock could either soar or plummet, potentially impacting your long-term financial security. You are faced with a decision: should you invest in the volatile stock, which offers the chance of a huge payoff with an even bigger price tag, or choose a more affordable option like a startup company that saves money to invest elsewhere, but comes with a higher level of risk?
This is the precarious situation the Cowboys find themselves in. The market rolled out the royal carpet for Prescott (the stock) to potentially become the first quarterback to earn $60 million a year. Over eight seasons, he’s proven to be a volatile investment. The highs are remarkable (regular-season success, second in MVP voting), but the lows (lack of playoff success) could lead Dallas to question whether he’s worth the gamble.
But can a playoff-caliber quarterback who gives a team a shot at postseason success become the deciding factor to make an NFL franchise pay a player their guy record-setting money? Maybe.
Scott Van Pelt of ESPN raised an interesting argument after Lawrence received his new contract from the Jacksonville Jaguars. At $55 million a year, Lawrence currently co-wears the crown.
— Brandon Loree (@Brandoniswrite) June 14, 2024A great way to summarize the QB market from @notthefakeSVP.
“You’re paying for the maybe” in postseason success, but the market is about regular season success.
Since 2021, Dak Prescott has 31 wins (4th) behind Mahomes, Allen, and Hurts.
Although the Jaguars quarterback may not have achieved the same level of success as Jackson, Mahomes, or Allen to be in the same financial zip code, he is a quarterback who can potentially lead Jacksonville to a playoff run in the next few seasons. It’s a forward-thinking move by a team that wanted to secure their investment early, considering Lawrence’s potential, market increase, and the expected increase in the salary cap down the line.
That’s why fans are frustrated with how things have been handled in Dallas. As soon as Lawrence signs his contract, Prescott’s agent, Todd France, should not settle for anything less than $55 million. Prescott has proven to be a much better player than Lawrence.
If regular-season success dictates a quarterback being paid top dollar, then Prescott has shown to be one of the best. Instead, the team waited until the end of his last contract extension to start thinking about his price tag, but by that point, the numbers have gotten out of this world, and the team has CeeDee Lamb and Micah Parsons in line for top-of-the-market deals, too.
However, no matter the price, having a quarterback who can get their team enough wins to be at least a seventh seed is more valuable than anything else. The dark side of the moon for teams stuck in quarterback purgatory is no life worth living for a franchise if it saves them money. Playoff irrelevancy makes you a laughing stock.
Do the Cowboys feel Prescott isn’t worth the market price if they believe he’s maxed out his potential? It’s possible. The acquisition of Trey Lance last year didn’t ease any doubts. Investing $300 million in the world of “having a chance” at a championship might be worth it for the Cowboys. After all, similar to any empire across history, the king that follows to wear the crown might not always be the right one.
